But someones got to be first, he said. The loss of CAP water will fall largely on Phoenix-area cities and on tribes. Sidewalk misters are running full bore in 108 degree heat. But the new study done by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation concluded theres likely to be less water in our aquifer if Tucson-area temperatures rise fast enough and development spreads out far enough. I am thinking about getting into backpacking, but I am worried about water. Thomures view of the worst-case scenario for Tucson is based on the possibility of the entire CAP which also serves Phoenix, farms and tribes losing 67% of its total supply in the future. The canal supplies the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas w, Climate change, a known threat to the Colorado River, stands a good chance of cutting into the Tucson areas future groundwater supplies, too,, Farmers will bear the brunt of the first round of major Central Arizona Project water cutbacks expected in 2022. Tucson Water supplies basically come But without any significant cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the study found the river's flows could shrink by as much as 31% by the middle of this century. On Monday, the US Bureau of Reclamation declared the first-ever official shortage, which will trigger the largest mandatory water cuts to date in the Colorado River Basin. In most years, snowmelt is responsible for about 80% of the rivers water supply, Lukas says. At this rate, Tucsons groundwater supply, which We know that much. Sahuarita Lake in the town of Sahuarita south of Tucson is popular with anglers, walkers, cyclists and others and its waters range from dazzling blue to aquamarine depending on the light. They might be interested in knowing if the home is already doing its part to use less water, she shared. Tucson will order its full allotment of Central Arizona Project water next year despite previously indicating it would cut back on its annual water purchase as part of a collaborative effort to keep more water in Lake Mead amid dire conditions facing the reservoir. If youre seeing them just about everywhere, youre certainly not alone. Arizona is ready for a water shortage, except for one thing NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. But it's taking in an equivalent amount of Colorado River water and recharging it. Still, with their Colorado River water on the verge of disappearing, farmers here are planning to pump even more groundwater to irrigate their fields. About 1-2% per year, it actually accelerated 10-15 years ago." The Santa Cruz river has served as a refuge during this drought. But there are other farming centers, in Arizona and elsewhere, which possess some of the highest priority water rights in the entire basin. Maricopa, ArizonaFor farmers in the deserts of central Arizona, success and failure is defined by who has water and who does not. But to compensate for that, Tucson Water would be able to tap into treated sewage effluent it has started recharging into the aquifer for its Santa Cruz River Heritage Project, begun in 2019, and its Southeast Houghton Area Recharge Project, started last year. No, thanks to careful planning by the Mayor, City Council, and Tucson Water, and our community's history of water conservation, Theres no doubt its serious: Tucson water expert The Colorado River is not forever, said Tucson City Council member Steve Kozachik. If river flows maintain their current, reduced levels, cutbacks will still be needed, but they wouldnt be as severe as if the flows keep dropping, the study said. But a lack of snow and rain doesnt fully explain what is happening to the Colorado River. But will the states be able to agree to new guidelines that reflect this reality? The utility offers customers up to a $2000 rebate for installation of rainwater harvesting systems. Your browser is out of date and potentially vulnerable to security risks.We recommend switching to one of the following browsers: You have permission to edit this article. At issue is a group of chemicals called per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS. Tom Davis, the general manager of the Yuma County Water Users Association, says that with less water to go around, he expects there will be new pressure to shift agricultural water supplies to the Southwests growing cities. The other half, however, originates hundreds of miles away at the headwaters of the Colorado River. They also have larger shares of higher-priority Municipal & Industrial (M&I) pool water that wont be impacted until a deeper Tier 3 shortage is declared. "People moving here from other places, growing our population, growing our economy, we have managed that over the past 30 years by decoupling water use and growth. Video by: Mamta Popat / Arizona Daily Star. Florida Agricultural And Mechanical University, Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology (Mit), Missouri University Of Science And Technology, State University Of New York Health Science Center At Brooklyn, Suny College Of Environmental Science And Forestry, The University Of North Carolina At Charlotte, The University Of Texas Health Science Center At Houston, The University Of Texas Health Science Center At San Antonio, The University Of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, The University Of Texas Medical Branch At Galveston, The University Of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Uniformed Services University Of The Health Sciences, University At Buffalo Suny School Of Engineering And Applied Sciences, University Of California, Los Angeles (Ucla), University Of Illinois At Urbana Champaign, University Of Maryland Baltimore County (Umbc), University Of Massachusetts Medical School Worcester, University Of Tennessee Health Science Center, University Of Texas Southwestern Medical Center. And in the long-term, scientists and water policy experts say those problems pose a threat to users far beyond the farms of Pinal County. Since that year, Tucson Waters groundwater pumping has decreased dramatically. James DeDitius points at ducks as he sits with caregiver Mary Figueroa on a bench next to a lake at Reid Park, on March 17, 2020. The Gila River Indian Communitys governor, Stephen Roe Lewis, says he had to fight for a seat at the table in the negotiations over the 2019 drought contingency plan. "Youll have these ripple effects through the economy, and jobs go away.". The worst plausible scenario of a cut the city could face is 50% of its total Colorado River allocation from the Central Arizona Project canal system, said former Tucson Water Director Tim Thomure. BY KIRA HOFFELMEYER Assistant News Director MILLARD COUNTY, Utah An entire Utah town in Millard County is now out of water on June 16. First things first! Uncertainty: Are We Running Out of Water? - University of Arizona Nearly a century has passed since Herbert Hoover led the first attempt to divide up the Colorado Rivers supply. fulfilling Californias water deliveries would take priority over meeting the needs of CAP water users, study published in the journal Science in 2020, risen by an average of 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit). KIRK SIEGLER, BYLINE: Tucson's water manager, John Kmiec, is standing on a patch of desert shrub more than 330 miles from the shrinking Colorado River. Earlier this year, Arizona Governor Doug Ducey and Governor Claudia Pavlovich of Mexicos Sonora state signed an agreement to study potential desalination sites. STEVE KOZACHIK: For us to be assuming or hoping that the drought is going to end is a false hope. Moreno, who lives in Tucson generally goes between LakeSahuarita and Kennedy Lake to fish for trout during the fall and winter months. When he's not teaching or writing, Paul enjoys spending time with his wife and two children. The roots of this current water crisis can be traced back nearly 100 years to the signing of the Colorado River Compact. To keep the generators running, the Bureau of Reclamation recently announced that smaller reservoirs in the Upper basin would release water to help prop up Lake Powell. First-ever water cuts declared for Colorado River in historic drought, Earth is warming faster than previously thought, scientists say, and the window is closing to avoid catastrophic outcomes, The West is caught in a vicious climate change feedback loop, By Drew Kann, Rene Rigdon and Daniel Wolfe, CNN, Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times/Shutterstock, Brandon Griggs, Angela Fritz and Kaeti Hinck, Jessi Esparza, Alexander Sears and Emma Beinish. Beneath a drill rig towering high above the desert floor, two men in yellow hard hats pull levers to drive a massive metal pipe into the ground. Tucson Water must submit its water delivery schedule to the CAP by Oct. 1, which indicates the amount of Colorado River water the city will receive for each month in 2023. And we sucked it dry. Las Vegas relies on the river for 90% of its water supply, Tucson for 82% and San Diego for around 66%. Tucson Water then would have a little more than 40,000 acre-feet left, or only enough to serve 160,000 households for a year. But the city is revisiting its assumption of recharge availability as it prepares its One Water 2100 plan, Thomure added. The state has already allocated $3.3 million to the Tucson site in an effort to slow the plume. A bird rests on a branch of a tree along the Santa Cruz River near the Crossroads at Silverbell District Park, in Marana, Ariz. on November 18, 2020. Today, this river system supplies 40 million people in seven western states and Mexico, and irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland on its way into Mexico and the Gulf of California. One recommendation is to address long-term rights to pump groundwater, including a fee or tax on mined groundwater. Several weeks, months, or even years may pass before people know that a drought is occurring. The 50,000 acre-feet recharge level was first mentioned in a 2004 city of Tucson 100-year water plan. On July 12, the City Council authorized the mayor and city manager to seek system conservation agreements with the federal government and the CAP with contingencies for the city to cut back on its CAP purchase. As water levels drop, billions of kilowatt hours of hydroelectricity that power homes from Nebraska to Arizona are also at risk. Its likely we will landin a Tier 2 shortage next year, which will mostly erase Central Arizona Projects Non-Indian Agricultural (NIA) pool. Broadly speaking, aridification is a shift to a new climate state dominated by water scarcity and driven by the effects of hotter temperatures. (See pgs. But since the mid-90s, this has been the most successful river basin in the world in terms of seven states and the country next to it coming together and figuring out how to make this river work for everyone.. If you love this content (or love to hate it hey, I won't judge),why not subscribe to get more? Those included that Tucson would be compensated at market rates for the water it saved, the savings would act as a credit against future reductions of the citys CAP allocations and that the city wouldnt incur increased operation and maintenance costs from the CAP cutbacks. The area has been experiencing a megadrought.. Los Angeles is No. That dire conclusion assumes the rivers flows keep declining as theyve done since 2000, due in part to climate change. WebTucson Waters conservation experts, and read answers to some of the top questions they hear from customers. Large portions of the water used in Los Angeles, Phoenix and Denver also come from the river, and experts say these booming metropolises would not have been possible without its supply. Quarterly Drought Status Update: JANUARY-MARCH 2022 Statewide precipitation for Water Year 2022 was below average at 3.78 inches at the end of March, a departure from the average precipitation of 6.32 inches. Our allocation from the Colorado River is 144,000 acre feet a year, our water use is about 90-100 acres a year. Already, projections show there is not enough groundwater available to meet future demands in the Pinal County Active Management Area (AMA) which includes much of Pinal County, as well as parts of Maricopa and Pima counties according to an Arizona Department of Water Resources spokesperson. Tucsonans have also embraced the desert landscape. Some scientists say the evidence shows the rivers shrinking supply is likely not so fleeting. Past megadroughts have lasted longer than the current one. Subscribe to our Daily Headlines newsletter. He says Tucson should lead by example. Nutt said shes even getting calls from out of state buyers wondering just how big this problem is and if people should be concerned. Were currently designing a mitigation system to treat the highest concentrations of this plume, Cabrera said. The water begins its journey high in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, where it first falls as snow. 4:04 4-Minute Listen Playlist Download Embed Transcript Arizona is facing dramatic cuts in water deliveries from the drought-imperiled But here, surrounded by acres of alfalfa and dairy pens on the outskirts of Maricopa, Arizona, the men are looking for something more valuable to the local economy: water. And state water officials are already warning that even deeper cuts than a Tier 3 shortage may soon be on the way, given how quickly Lake Mead is draining. Because even if taps dont run dry, state law requires cities to spell out how they would trim use as shortages grow. Arizona faces the most severe reductions. To schedule an appointment, call the Tucson Water Customer Solution Center at 520-791-3242 or send us an e-mail. Some areas have access to multiple renewable supplies and dont fully utilize them. KOZACHIK: Three years from now, five years from now, whenever it is, we can all be standing along the banks of the Colorado looking at a drive riverbed, saying all I did was take what I was entitled to. A duck runs on water at Chuck Ford Lakeside Park, 8201 E. Stella Rd., in Tucson, Ariz. on Nov. 17, 2020. After years of negotiations, Arizona and six other Southwestern states that rely on the Colorado River for drinking water have agreed to a drought contingency plan, and The lake is stocked with catfish, trout, bass and sunfish. Its water levels have fallen more than 146 feet since their peak in January of 2000, and the lake is now just 35% full. Tucson will be left with less CAP water to recharge and store in basins in the Avra Valley; it is not expected to affect the CAP water delivered to Tucson Water customers. All rights reserved. we've got to find ways to curb that use," said Kathleen Ferris, a senior research fellow at the Kyl Center. Doug Ducey sent a letter to the Department of Defense asking it to take action to mitigate the potential for water contamination on four military bases around Arizona, including Davis Monthan in Tucson and Luke Air Force base in Glendale. Sustained shortages on Lake Mead are going to change life as we know it. Tucson has historically ordered its full CAP allocation since 2010, with the exception of 2017 and 2018 when the city entered into agreements to assist statewide efforts to shore up Lake Meads water elevation. Critics say the project represents a denial of the realities of climate change that could imperil the water supplies of millions. And after decades of receiving water from the Colorado River, the spigot could soon be turned off on many farms here, including Thelanders. Drought in the West is a long-term concept, which means that a single dry year does not constitute a drought in Arizona. Given what we know, many say we will have to use even less water in the future. Bernie Kanavage and Toby take a break from their evening walk on the bank of the main pond at Agua Caliente Park, Tucson, Ariz., November 17, 2020. Tucson Water also said its users have reduced their water use 30% per person over the past decades. But in 2023, Pinal Countys farms will likely see their Colorado River supply dry up completely, according to the states drought plans. Jim Skay fishes at Silverbell Lake, on March 13, 2020. A failure to reach an agreement could usher in an era of uncertainty for the basins 40 million water users and increase the likelihood of legal conflicts, says John Entsminger, the general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority, which provides water from the Colorado River to nearly 2.3 million people in Las Vegas and across the state. Beyond the natural recharge it gets annually, the city legally has the rights to pump a total of 3.3 million acre-feet of naturally replenished groundwater already in the aquifer. For the three Lower Basin states, including Arizona, cutbacks of up to 40% of their Colorado River supplies may be necessary to keep reservoirs from falling too low, it said. of the 1981-2010 average, Soil moisture on Nov. 15, 2020, as a pct. The sun goes down and the bats come out over the main pond at Agua Caliente Park, Tucson, Ariz., November 17, 2020. Though Phoenix has more than an adequate supply of water in non-shortage years, residents and business owners are encouraged to embrace a desert lifestyle. These catfish were dumped into Silverbell Lake on April 03, 2015. Water flows in the Santa Cruz River south of downtown Tucson, Ariz. on November 16, 2020. Thats enough to serve the citys customers for more than 200 years, Tucson Water says. That study warned that if river flows drop 6.5% for every 1.8 degree Fahrenheit temperature increase, as some researchers project, aggressive commitments to water conservation will be needed in the Lower and Upper Colorado River Basin states. Construction began in 1973 and was substantially complete by 1994. Were in uncharted territory for this system, says Jeff Lukas, an independent consultant and former research scientist at the University of Colorado at Boulder, where he focused on water issues for 20 years. All rights reserved. Arizona will see the largest reductions. Tucson hikers rescued after running out of water - Yahoo News Tucson Water Meanwhile, as water levels in Lake Mead plummet, states are exploring opportunities to develop new sources of water in addition to what they receive from the Colorado River. Those portions were based on estimates that the rivers flow totaled roughly 16.4 million acre-feet each year. Water SIEGLER: The idea is you bank the water for lean times. They just didnt expect it to happen so soon. Theres no doubt its serious: Tucson water expert weighs in on looming crisis, Two motorcyclists killed in crash on Harrison Road in Tucson, State Representative from Tucson formally resigns, Too soon? Tucson Ducks swim in one of the bodies of water at the Sweetwater Wetlands, 2511 W. Sweetwater Drive, in Tucson, Ariz. on November 17, 2020. Ferris doesn't think Tucson will be able to sustain safe-yield over the long term." Soil moisture on Nov. 15, 2020, as a pct. Inside a municipal building in Pinal County, Thelander rolls a map out across the board room table. And groundwater is a finite supply," Ferris said. A person walks along Sahuarita Lake on March 5, 2020. Those portions were based on estimates that the rivers flow totaled roughly 16.4 million acre-feet each year. While Thomure said a 75% cut in CAP is not a plausible scenario, if it did happen, the city could still manage its water supply sustainably and indefinitely, he said. Libby Sullivan, left, and Sue Bridgemon do some birdwatching at the Sweetwater Wetlands, 2511 W. Sweetwater Drive, in Tucson, Ariz. on November 17, 2020. Most people really aren't that interested in water issues until there's a crisis. Next year farmers in Thelanders district will only get about 1/3 of the water supply theyve received in past years. Over the course of the 20th century, new agreements and court decisions further divided up the rivers supply among the seven basin states, Mexico and the regions Native American tribes. Arizona will struggle to find enough water for suburban growth, 1. Thats enough to serve more than 1.5 million households for a year. Politically, the river is also entering uncharted territory. Johanna Willett | This Is Tucson. Just about every YouTube channel about hiking goes to places that have natural running water, and just about all of them recommend a Sawyer squeeze filter or something similar. KMIEC: Because we've banked more than 5 1/2 years of excess Colorado River water in these aquifers already. KATHRYN SORENSEN: It's a secret underground reservoir. The addition of reclaimed water to the Santa Cruz River has hastened the return of wildlife. We do have the lowest priority on the Colorado River, he said. What were asking is do some preventative maintenance and stop the migration of this plume before it hits the drinking water, he said. Phoenix ranked number three. Thats why some folks in the unincorporated Rio Verde Foothills could lose their sole source of water in December, while their Scottsdale neighbors may never face the prospect of a dry tap. SIEGLER: Kozachik says every user in this basin needs to come to the table now and agree to use significantly less water. A heron sits by the water in the Santa Cruz River near the Crossroads at Silverbell District Park, in Marana, Ariz. on November 18, 2020. Based on Tucsons proportional share of the entire CAP supply, the city would lose about 47% of its allocation, said Thomure. 512 weeksDrought in Arizona from 2000Present Since 2000, the longest duration of drought (D1D4) in Arizona lasted 512 weeks beginning on August 18, 2009, and ending on June 4, 2019. For now, Tucson stands to skate through the cuts approved in the 2019 drought plan. To look around Anthem would be to imagine there is no such thing as a water shortage. But any way you cut it, our farm will be less profitable.. But next year, he expects to leave 30% to 40% of his land unsown. But as NPR's Kirk Siegler reports, in Arizona anyway, few people appear to be panicking. 2023 www.azcentral.com. Despite their pushback, Utahs new Colorado River commissioner Gene Shawcroft says he believes the project is important to the states growth and intends to push for its approval. running out The Kyl Center report says conservation isn't enough at this point. He also likes playing golf and watching sports. Thomure called the Utah State study well done. It achieves its stated goal, to put out some provocative ideas and with the express intent of having people think more broadly and more creatively as we go into next negotiations on the river, he said. On the patchwork of brown desert and green farmland in front of us, Thelander points out the parcels of land where he and his brother, son and nephew grow cotton, alfalfa and several other crops. With a 50% cut, Tucson would have a little less than 75,000 acre-feet of CAP left. Chuck Ford Lakeside Park, an urban lake on the southeast side of town, is a popular spot for walking and fishing. When will Tucson run out of water? - KOLD News 13 Its not an unreasonable study but its also not making any specific prediction about the future. SIEGLER: For more than 20 years now, Tucson has been preparing for this crisis, pumping its legal share of Colorado River water from the federally built canal into the ground right here. WebTucson depends on CAP for drinking water, but its supplies wouldnt yet be affected. Squabbles erupted over details big and small, from how to measure the rivers flow to how to portion out its supply. Jay Famiglietti a water scientist at NASA broke the news in an op-ed piece released by the LA Times this month. The states internal Drought Contingency Plan also mitigates the impacts of losing NIA water, meaning contractors are in line to receivewater from other sources. That brings the total shortfall for the CAP to 592,000 acre-feet more than one-third of the projects supply of 1.5 million acre-feet before the shortages kicked in, and 21% of the states total Colorado River supply of 2.8 million acre-feet. Otherwise, the Colorado really will run dry. Jacobs point is "well taken, Thomure said. Grass lawns are rare. At the same time, its two main reservoirs the savings account for the entire system in times of drought have drained rapidly. The lake is stocked with catfish, trout, bass and sunfish. By Marcello Rossi 31st October 2022 As the United States' south-west faces the worst drought in more than a millennium, a city built on the banks of a dry riverbed A lack of buy-in on Tucsons plan led the City Council to vote 6-1 Tuesday to order its full CAP allocation in 2023. However, we have to remember that water needs to last us a lifetime. The US Bureau of Reclamation, which manages water and hydropower in the south-west, declared its first water shortage in 2021; federal mandates and state-based efforts resulted in Arizona leaving 500,000 acre-feet behind Hoover Dam this year, according to AZCentral.com. Pinal Countys farmers are bearing the brunt of the first round of water cuts because of their low position in the states water priority system. If CAP were cut 67%, municipal and tribal CAP users would probably lose about 472,000 acre-feet total, Thomure said. Many farms here, like Thelanders, specialize in growing alfalfa, corn and other crops to feed the thousands of dairy cattle on local farms. "First of all we've got too many people using groundwater. How long until Arizona runs out of water? At times, that process has sparked major disputes with some leading all the way to the US Supreme Court. Several resident ducks ply the waters of the main pond as sun sets at Agua Caliente Park, Tucson, Ariz., November 17, 2020. SIEGLER: It's not? The same 2018 University of Arizona study found that under a scenario where farms here lose all of the Colorado River water allocated to them, it could cost the county between $31.7 and $35 million and as many as 480 jobs. Arizona is currently in the 27th year of a long-term drought. The state enters an era of relentless decline. Now, with water cuts looming next year, the CAPs status in the Colorado Rivers pecking order is proving significant. Its like spending your long-term savings you want to do that very advisedly.. 43 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend May 18-21 While Tucson may have to pump more groundwater in the future because of CAP cuts, their agreement under the states drought contingency plan, about 1/3 of the water supply theyve received in past years. The authors found that further decreases in the rivers flow are likely no matter what actions are taken. This allowed officials to let the rivers water accounting problem persist for decades, experts say. But once there, he played a key role in helping push the deal across the finish line in Arizona. But residents also should know that cities wont be askingforever, particularly as theyreceive less water from Lake Mead. He will have a better idea of what the cost to the city would be after the CAPs Sept. 1 board meeting. Dystopian thriller about Phoenix running out of water

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