Alexandratos, N. & Bruinsma, J. If sub-Saharan Africa achieved replacement-level fertility rates along with all other regions by 2050, it would close the land gap by one quarter and the GHG mitigation gap by 17 percent while reducing hunger. This deviates from most model studies, which assume an increase in feed-to-food conversion efficiency rates44 and hence a lower relative future demand for feed. See Fig. Herrero et al. For practical purposes, we decided to limit the collection and harmonization of data to two indicators that were presented in the majority of studies: per capita food consumption (in kcal per capita per day) and population at risk of hunger (in million persons). The CRISPR-Cas938revolution since 2013 dramatically increases opportunities to improve breeding through genetic manipulation. 170, 166182 (2013). Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy. We included fixed effects for all SSPRCP combinations and dummy variables for pure (as opposed to derived) SSP and RCP scenarios. Optimistically, farmers have so far continued to steadily boost yields by farming smarter in a variety of ways, and new technologies are opening up new potential. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v082.i13 (2017). Branch of agriculture connected with rearing and management of crop plant is called agronomy. Actions to take include significantly increasing public and private crop-breeding budgets, especially for orphan crops like millet and yam, which are regionally important, but not traded globally. "},"86":{"name":"natural","description":"A forest that is grown without human intervention.\r\n"},"12":{"name":"natural forest","description":"A forest that is grown without human intervention.\r\n"},"63":{"name":"natural forests","description":"A forest that is grown without human intervention.\r\n"},"82":{"name":"persistent gain","description":"Forests that have experienced one gain event from 2001 to 2016.\r\n"},"13":{"name":"persistent loss and gain","description":"Forests that have experienced one loss or one gain event from 2001 to 2016. A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 20102050, $${y}_{ij}={\beta }_{0}+{\beta }_{1}{x}_{1ij}++{\beta }_{p}{x}_{pij}+{b}_{i1}{z}_{1ij}++{b}_{iq}{z}_{qij}+{\epsilon }_{ij}$$, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00322-9. Independent variables, such as method, model base year and type of study, were dropped as a result of this procedure (Supplementary Section B). Econ. This close relationship, however, is also affected by changing and improving diets in developing countries and biofuel production factors that increase the global demand for food and feed. Nat Food 2, 494501 (2021). Such productivity gains reduce both the need for additional land and the emissions from production processes. Nearly all studies include assumptions on future population (n=57) and income growth (n=52), which are key drivers of food demand, and assumptions on technical change (including total factor productivity growth, crop yield increase and adoption of advanced inputs) (n=52), which is the main driver of food supply (Fig. c,d, Total food consumption baseline projections. These menu items are not optionalthe world must implement all 22 of them to close the food, land and GHG mitigation gaps. . (eds) An Introduction to Systematic Reviews (Sage, 2012); https://doi.org/10.1186/2046-4053-1-28. According to the World Food Programme, trade barriers put up by some countries to safeguard national food security in combination with an economic slowdown were expected to double acute hunger by the end of 2020 (ref. 1. ONeill, B. C. et al. This is substantially lower than the FAO2 and Tilman et al.1 projections of 60110%. Food Sec. (2010). The dark and light grey shaded areas demarcate the plausible range of projections using the 95% confidence interval across all NOCC SSP and all RCP SSP projections, respectively. First, in contrast to model comparison exercises45, where all models use harmonized assumptions on drivers and attempt to align the implementation of qualitative scenario assumptions, the input data of the studies in our review are not fully aligned despite our effort to map all projections to the SSP scenario framework. \r\n"},"17":{"name":"tree cover","description":"All vegetation greater than five meters in height and may take the form of natural forests or plantations across a range of canopy densities. Glob. Reducing food loss and waste by 25 percent by 2050 would close the food gap by 12 percent, the land gap by 27 percent and the GHG mitigation gap by 15 percent. "},"56":{"name":"mosaic restoration","description":"Restoration that integrates trees into mixed-use landscapes, such as agricultural lands and settlements, where trees can support people through improved water quality, increased soil fertility, and other ecosystem services. Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats and CRISPR-associated. Because pasture makes up two-thirds of all agricultural land, the productivity of livestock will critically affect future land use and emissions. The Future of Food and AgricultureAlternative Pathways to 2050 (FAO, 2018). 2c). PubMed Studies have projected that farmers could achieve far higher yields than they do today. J. B 365, 27932807 (2010). Although earlier analyses suggested that effects on crop yields by 2050 might even be beneficial, by the time of the 2014 IPCC report, models projected on average that, without adaptation, global crop yields were more likely than not to decline by at least 5 percent by 2050with even steeper declines by 2100.47. . Key determinants of global land-use projections. Sci. (2015); Williams and Fritschel (2012); Bationo et al. For food production to keep pace, unprecedented amounts of resources such as water, fertilizers and energy will be required. Biomass is also an inefficient energy source: Using all the harvested biomass on Earth in the year 2000including crops, crop residues, grass eaten by livestock and woodwould only provide about 20 percent of global energy needs in 2050. Only a few studies68,69 present detailed information on the shifts in diet, and in most cases the results are not comparable due to differences in the composition of food groups, making wider comparison impossible. 4 Per capita food consumption (a) and total food consumption (b) projections comparing no climate change (NOCC) with RCP projections for 2050. Taking population growth into account, total food consumption increase is the lowest in SSP1 (+41%) and the highest in SSP2 (+51%). Peatlands conversion for agriculture requires drainage, which releases large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Fox, J. A physically-based model of long-term food demand. CAS 3 for a detailed explanation of the figure elements. Breeding can both increase the potential yield of crops under ideal conditions and help farmers come closer to those potential yields by better coping with environmental constraints. We labelled them as No class and excluded them from further analysis but added them to the Global Food Security Projections Database fur further reference. . & Befort, B. L. Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Google Scholar. 7). New advances in molecular biology offer great promise for additional yield gains by making it cheaper and faster to map genetic codes of plants, test for desired DNA traits, purify crop strains, and turn genes on and off. We used R (ref. Increase in Food Production - The Fact Factor 8). PLoS ONE 10, e0139201 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/025001 (2015). Make a list of factors that they should consider for crop improvement. Opponents of mainstream agriculture often dismiss global food future projections and scenarios because they believe that the cited 60110% increase in food demand (or its doubling, for short) erroneously frames global food security as a problem of supply (or even scarcity), closing off discussions of solutions that do not principally rely on increasing food production through technological innovation. Change 42, 331345 (2017). Agric. Finally, we used a questionnaire to systematically extract and code relevant information, including metadata, methods used, scenario information, food security indicators and main drivers. Agroecol. 87, 127 (2018). https://michielvandijk.shinyapps.io/gfsp_db_dashboard/, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-3869-3_13, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/025001, https://johndeerejournal.com/2015/12/smallholder-farmers-big-challenges, https://insight.wfp.org/covid-19-will-almost-double-people-in-acute-hunger-by-end-of-2020-59df0c4a8072, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-87458-6, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w, http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-fs/ess-fadata/en/#.XiYStoh7mcw. Restoring them to wetlands should be a high priority and would close the GHG mitigation gap by up to 7 percent. Food Insecurity in the Caribbean - World Bank Group A pineapple farmer in the state of Mizoram, India cultivating pineapple from crown to feed the domestic demand and export to Nepal, UK, Spain and UAE. Ishida, H. et al. Sometimes new genes can provide the only viable mechanisms for crops to survive new diseases. Importance of Food Production | Industrial Components Group Additionally, two billion people are affected by hidden hunger wherein people lack key micronutrients such as iron, zinc, vitamin A and iodine. The study implicitly assumes that food and feed have the same relationship with income per capita. Many of these studies are produced as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project12. Google Scholar. PubMed If a sufficient number of projections from new scenario families become available, we can easily incorporate them in our assessment. Food price (n=18) and, to a lesser extent, childhood undernutrition (n=7) are other popular indicators. To analyse these projections, we grouped them by policy and compared the results with the estimated range that resulted from our meta-regression (Supplementary Fig. The core data used in the study were obtained from the selected studies (Supplementary Section E) including their supplementary information and data files. The authors declare no competing interests. Some climate effects, however, are sufficiently clear to emphasize the need for new measures or expanded effort on other menu items: Climate change could shorten growing seasons in much of sub-Saharan Africa by more than 20 percent by 2100. Even these additional improvements leave significant land and GHG mitigation gaps (Table 2). Res. Econ. The worlds 26 million hectares of drained peatlands account for 2 percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions. Holt-Gimnez, E. & Altieri, M. A. Agroecology, food sovereignty, and the new green revolution. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions. Several of the selected studies present food security projections at the broad regional level13,64,67 that clearly indicate different patterns and futures, which we are unable to analyse. bi1,. Higher temperatures will harm crops by drying soils, accelerating water loss, and increasing pest damage.50Extreme heat events will harm maize, wheat, coffee, and many other crops by interfering with reproduction.51Growing seasons in parts of sub-Saharan Africa could become too short or too irregular to support crops (Figure 11), contributing to major food security concerns.52. However, methods for estimating these yield gaps tend to exaggerate gap sizes and farmers can rarely achieve more than 80 percent of yield potential. This type of restoration is more likely in deforested or degraded forest landscapes with moderate population density (10\u2013100 people per square kilometer). After all projections are harmonized and observations outside the 95% confidence interval (which can be considered as less plausible) are discarded, the projections are largely consistent. the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Although it is too early to understand the full impact and consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, current developments show some resemblance with the SSP3 Regional Rivalry scenario, which is characterized by slow economic development, a focus on domestic security and sovereignty, and increasing inequality within and between nations. Download Entire Course 2: Increase Food Production without Expanding Agricultural Land, Reduce Growth in Demand for Food and Other Agricultural Products (Synthesis), Increase Food Production Without Expanding Agricultural Land (Synthesis), Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agricultural Production, Authors and Contributors, Acknowledgments, Course 2: Increase Food Production without Expanding Agricultural Land (Synthesis), Course 3: Protect and Restore Natural Ecosystems and Limit Agricultural Land-Shifting (Synthesis), Scope of the Challenge and Menu of Possible Solutions, The Complete Menu: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Cross-Cutting Policies for a Sustainable Food Future. Wirsenius, S., Azar, C. & Berndes, G. How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030? Pardey, P. G., Beddow, J. M., Hurley, T. M., Beatty, T. K. M. & Eidman, V. R. A bounds analysis of world food futures: global agriculture through to 2050. The aim of this paper is to provide a review of recent global food security projection and quantitative scenario studies that provide trends to 2050. Resistance to plant viruses. A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 20102050. Climate change will benefit some crops, at least in the short term, as higher concentrations of carbon dioxide increase the efficiency of photosynthesis. Zuur, A. F., Ieno, E. N., Walker, N., Saveliev, A. van Vuuren, D. P. et al. Historical data for the selected food security indicators were taken from FAO70. To produce enough food to sustain the planet's population, it is estimated that 52,8 millions of water per second are required [2] Of our total water consumption, food accounts for roughly 66%. van Vuuren, D. P., Kok, M. T. J., Girod, B., Lucas, P. L. & de Vries, B. Change 134, 429440 (2016). Systematic model comparisons showed that structural differences between assumptions on technological change47, the way food demand is modelled48 and the type of model45 are important factors that explain differences in projections. Headey, D. & Fan, S. Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices. Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach. USA 108, 20260 (2011). The real average price of food has actually been increasing since the year 2000. d, Food security indicators. Scenarios in global environmental assessments: key characteristics and lessons for future use. The latter captures the combined impact of changes in the diet and growth in population (Extended Data Fig. To be consistent, we decided to use the simulation models category for all studies in which food security indicators are presented in the context or as part of a model simulation study, while stand-alone statistical approaches, even when they are used as part of a model in other studies13, were classified as statistical extrapolation. Land-use requirements can be 100 times greater,34and the quantity of feed 20 times greater.35. If the 95% confidence interval is considered, the projected change in population at risk of hunger lies between 91% and +8% for NOCC projections and between 91% and +30% for climate change projections (Extended Data Fig. Environ. Given that demand for animal-based foods is projected to grow by 70 percent by 2050 and that pastureland accounts for two thirds of agricultural land use, boosting pasture productivity is an important solution. Five Causes of Higher Food Prices In the short-term, many factors affect food prices, making them volatile. Global food security is a complex issue that is determined by the interaction of a multitude of driving forces that operate on both the demand and supply sides. Land-use futures in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Shutes, L. et al. 3). Cropland would need to expand overall by 457 Mha (increasing the total land gap by 45 percent). IkshuArora. Finally, our analysis deals only with global-level projections. ADS Scientific Advances 3. For example, closing yield gaps in Africa and India would increase incomes and provide a buffer against adverse climate impacts, forest protection could increase resilience through improved local hydrology, while safety net programs for the rural poor will better equip small farmers to deal with future variability. Large productivity improvements for pork and poultry are unlikely in developed countries because of biological limits.33In developing countries, because traditional backyard systems make use of waste and scavenging, shifts to modern systems increase output but do not reduce land-use demands and emissions. The model was estimated using a restricted maximum-likelihood routine as implemented by the lme4 R package57 in combination with the lmerTest package58, which implements the Satterthwaites degrees of freedom method for mixed models. The data for 2018 are incomplete as they only include studies that were released in the first half of the year. Y.S. b, Point estimates and 95% confidence intervals taken from the meta-regression as well as all observations in 2050, comparing NOCC projections with projections based on the most extreme climate scenario (RCP8.5). Health & Parenting Guide - Your Guide to Raising a Happy - WebMD If climate change is taken into account, the ranges change slightly (+30% to +62% for total food demand and 91% to +30% for population at risk of hunger) but with no statistical differences overall.

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